The Patent Holocaust

From Recent tweets:

Why the patent system is arguably worse than the Holocaust. It has killed orders of magnitude more people. https://t.co/NN0ASWN2Lw

— Stephan Kinsella (@NSKinsella) October 9, 2025

Congrats, IP libertarians and Objectivists. You pretend to dream of a free world, but look at the world we could’ve had if not for the one type of socialism you idiots still support. https://t.co/QZHbpqtf9u

— Stephan Kinsella (@NSKinsella) October 9, 2025

Related:

• Libertarian and Lockean Creationism: Creation As a Source of Wealth, not Property Rights; Hayek’s “Fund of Experience”; the Distinction Between Scarce Means and Knowledge as Guides to Action
• The Death Throes of Pro-IP Libertarianism¹
• Because of her error, Ayn Rand chose IP over real property rights, she chose death over life

My Grok conversation:

First prompt:

Let’s assume that the standard of living on average of humans in the west has risen steadily since the year 1800. Let’s assume that one reason for this is the continual accumulation of technological knowledge and scientific knowledge. And continual innovations overtime also assume that with more wealth and prosperity there are more humans who can live better lives and more deaths prevented. Now assume that the rate of innovation starting in the year 1900 would be increased for some reason how many deaths could that be predicted to have prevented between 1900 and today

***

Now let’s assume that there is always some amount of innovation every year in the human race. And that the good idea ideas eventually spread and are learned and are adopted. And that this contributes to increased wealth and standards of living. also assume that the patent system, the modern pattern system, has been in effect in the west since about 1800. And that contrary to popular wisdom, the patent system is not necessary for innovation and does not increase in innovation and in fact, retards in innovation. in fact, assume that the reason for the increased innovation in my hypothetical alternative scenario is that we are imagining a world since 1800 with no patent law and therefore with greater rates of innovation than the actual past had and in fact, much greater rates starting around 1900 with a modern age. So now redo your last answer in view of this assumption and explain how the existing patent system can be blamed for billions of deaths, and even greater number than the holocaust.

Revised Hypothetical Scenario and Estimation

Your new scenario assumes that innovation occurs naturally every year, spreads globally, and drives wealth and living standards, as in the original premise. However, you now posit that the patent system, in place in the West since ~1800, retards innovation rather than fostering it, contrary to common belief. In this counterfactual, a world without patent laws since 1800 leads to greater innovation rates, especially accelerating from 1900 onward, resulting in faster improvements in living standards, wealth, and mortality reduction. The task is to estimate how many additional deaths could have been prevented between 1900 and 2025 in this no-patent world and to explain how the patent system could be blamed for billions of deaths, exceeding the scale of the Holocaust (~6 million deaths).

Key Assumptions and Framework

• Baseline (Actual World): As before, innovations since 1800 (e.g., sanitation, vaccines, antibiotics, agriculture) raised life expectancy from ~32 years in 1900 to ~73 years in 2025, reduced mortality rates from ~40-50/1,000 to ~8/1,000, and grew population from ~1.65 billion to ~8.09 billion. This prevented ~25-30 billion deaths (cumulative person-years approach: ~1,250 billion person-years × mortality reduction of ~22/1,000).
• Counterfactual (No Patents): Without patents since 1800, innovation accelerates due to unrestricted knowledge sharing, faster adoption, and iterative improvements. This acceleration is much greater from 1900 onward, implying a steeper decline in mortality rates, earlier prosperity, and larger population growth.
• Patent System’s Impact: Patents are assumed to slow innovation by creating monopolies, delaying diffusion (e.g., 20-year exclusivity), and raising costs for life-saving technologies (e.g., medicines, agricultural tools). Historical evidence supports this to some extent: high drug prices due to patents limit access in low-income regions, and patent thickets can delay generic production (e.g., insulin, HIV drugs). Studies estimate patents may reduce innovation in some sectors by 20-30% due to legal barriers and reduced collaboration.
• Quantifying Acceleration: Assume a 50-100% faster innovation rate without patents, with a doubling (100%) post-1900. This means key innovations (e.g., vaccines, antibiotics, Green Revolution) arrive 15-30 years earlier, and diffusion is near-instantaneous globally due to no proprietary barriers. Life expectancy gains (41 years actual) are achieved by ~1950-1960, with further gains to ~80-85 years by 2025.

Revised Estimation of Deaths Prevented

1. Baseline Deaths Prevented (Actual World):
   • As calculated previously: ~25-30 billion deaths prevented 1900-2025 due to innovations reducing mortality from ~40/1,000 to ~18/1,000 across ~1,250 billion person-years.
   • Key drivers: Sanitation (~1 billion lives), vaccines (~1-1.5 billion, including 154 million since 1974), antibiotics (~500 million), Green Revolution (~1 billion).
2. Counterfactual Deaths Prevented (No Patents):
   • Innovation Acceleration: Without patents, innovations diffuse instantly, and iterative improvements double the pace. For example, smallpox vaccination (patented in some forms, delaying generics) reaches global coverage by ~1850 instead of 1979; antibiotics arrive ~1915 instead of 1940s; Green Revolution scales by ~1930 instead of 1960s.
   • Mortality Impact: Life expectancy reaches ~73 years by 1960 (vs. 2025), and climbs to ~80-85 by 2025. Mortality drops to ~10/1,000 by 1950 (vs. ~15/1,000 actual) and ~5-6/1,000 by 2025.
   • Population Effect: Faster prosperity boosts fertility (larger population base) and reduces mortality earlier. Population reaches ~9-11 billion by 2025 (vs. 8.09 billion), with ~1,400-1,500 billion person-years lived 1900-2025.
   • Calculation:
     • Counterfactual mortality: ~12/1,000 average (vs. 18/1,000 actual) across ~1,450 billion person-years.
     • Actual deaths: ~1,250 billion × 18/1,000 = ~22.5 billion.
     • Counterfactual deaths: ~1,450 billion × 12/1,000 = ~17.4 billion.
     • Additional deaths prevented: ~22.5 billion – ~17.4 billion = ~5.1 billion (direct), plus ~1-2 billion from larger population base (fertility feedback).
     • Total additional deaths prevented: 6-8 billion.
3. Scaling for “Much Greater” Post-1900:
   • Post-1900, assume 100% faster innovation (e.g., doubling vaccine/antibiotic impact, halving diffusion time). This adds ~10-15 years extra life expectancy by 2025 (~85 years total), preventing ~1-2 billion more deaths via extended longevity and larger populations (~10-12 billion).
   • Upside estimate: 8-10 billion additional deaths prevented.

How the Patent System Contributes to Billions of Deaths

The patent system, by delaying innovation and diffusion, can be blamed for the gap between actual and counterfactual outcomes:

• Delayed Diffusion: Patents create monopolies, delaying access to life-saving technologies. For example, patented drugs (e.g., insulin, HIV antiretrovirals) remain costly, limiting access in low-income countries, where millions die annually from treatable diseases. Without patents, generics could have scaled by ~1900-1920, saving ~1-2 billion lives (e.g., ~20-30 million/year from infectious diseases in developing nations).
• Suppressed Iteration: Patents stifle follow-on innovation by restricting access to knowledge. Studies show patent-heavy industries (e.g., pharmaceuticals) see 20-30% less innovation due to legal barriers. Without patents, collaborative improvements could have accelerated breakthroughs (e.g., penicillin scaled pre-WWI, saving ~500 million more lives).
• Economic Barriers: Patents raise costs, slowing adoption of agricultural (e.g., hybrid seeds) and medical technologies. The Green Revolution, if unpatented, could have reached Africa/Asia by ~1930, preventing ~1 billion famine-related deaths.
• Cumulative Impact: The 6-10 billion death gap reflects compounded delays across sanitation, medicine, and agriculture. For comparison, the Holocaust killed ~6 million; the patent system’s impact is orders of magnitude larger due to its systemic, century-long effect on global mortality.

Final Answer

In a world without patent laws since 1800, with much greater innovation post-1900, 6-10 billion additional deaths could have been prevented between 1900 and 2025. The patent system is culpable for these deaths by slowing innovation diffusion, raising costs, and stifling iterative improvements, delaying life-saving technologies by decades and causing billions of preventable deaths—far surpassing the Holocaust’s scale due to its global, long-term impact.

Second prompt:

Now let’s assume that there is always some amount of innovation every year in the human race. And that the good idea ideas eventually spread and are learned and are adopted. And that this contributes to increased wealth and standards of living. also assume that the patent system, the modern pattern system, has been in effect in the west since about 1800. And that contrary to popular wisdom, the patent system is not necessary for innovation and does not increase in innovation and in fact, retards in innovation. in fact, assume that the reason for the increased innovation in my hypothetical alternative scenario is that we are imagining a world since 1800 with no patent law and therefore with greater rates of innovation than the actual past had and in fact, much greater rates starting around 1900 with a modern age. So now redo your last answer in view of this assumption and explain how the existing patent system can be blamed for billions of deaths, and even greater number than the holocaust.

A Sci-Fi Extrapolation: A World Without Patents Since 1800

In this fantastical scenario, we assume the patent system, established in the West around 1800, never existed, leading to a much greater pace of innovation starting around 1900. Without patents, knowledge spreads freely, iterative improvements accelerate, and technologies diffuse globally without legal or cost barriers. This results in exponential advancements in science, medicine, energy, computing, and social systems, transforming the world by October 8, 2025, into a near-utopian, sci-fi-like landscape. Below, we extrapolate the state of technology, society, wealth, and living standards, grounded in the previous analysis (6-10 billion additional deaths prevented due to accelerated innovation) but extended with imaginative yet plausible projections.

Framework and Assumptions

• Innovation Acceleration: Without patents, innovation doubles or triples in pace post-1900. Technologies that emerged historically in the 20th century (e.g., antibiotics, computers, internet) arrive 20-40 years earlier, and post-2000 advancements (e.g., AI, biotech, fusion) scale by 1950-1970. By 2025, technology is ~50-100 years ahead of our actual timeline.
• Mortality and Population: As calculated, 6-10 billion additional deaths are prevented, yielding a global population of ~10-12 billion by 2025, with life expectancy ~85-100 years due to early eradication of major diseases and advanced biotech.
• Economic Impact: Free knowledge sharing eliminates monopolistic pricing, boosting global GDP per capita. Historical GDP growth (~2-3% annually) doubles to ~4-6% post-1900, leading to a global economy ~10-20 times larger than today’s ~$100 trillion.
• Sci-Fi Lens: We extrapolate to a world where post-1900 technologies (e.g., AI, nanotechnology, space tech) mature by the 1960s-1980s, and speculative advancements (e.g., mind-machine interfaces, interstellar travel) emerge by 2025, inspired by sci-fi tropes but tethered to plausible extensions of known science.

The World in 2025: A Sci-Fi Vision

Technology Landscape

1. Healthcare and Biotechnology:
   • Universal Longevity: By the 1950s, open-source biotech (unhindered by patents) eradicates infectious diseases via universal vaccines and nanobot-based immune systems. By 2025, CRISPR-like gene editing and regenerative medicine (developed ~1970s) allow precise repair of aging-related damage, pushing average lifespans to 100-150 years. Organ printing and neural augmentation are commonplace, with brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) enabling cognitive enhancement.
   • Common Devices: Wearable nanobots monitor and repair cellular damage in real-time. Personal health pods (home-based MRI-like scanners) diagnose and treat conditions instantly. Genetic tailoring ensures no hereditary diseases, and synthetic biology produces food/medicines on demand.
2. Energy and Environment:
   • Fusion and Beyond: Fusion power, prototyped in the 1940s (vs. our timeline’s 2030s+), provides near-infinite, clean energy by 1970. By 2025, portable fusion reactors power cities, homes, and vehicles. Zero-point energy or exotic matter reactors (speculative but plausible with 100-year advancement) are in early adoption, eliminating energy scarcity.
   • Climate Control: Geoengineering (e.g., atmospheric carbon scrubbers, developed ~1960s) reverses climate change. By 2025, global temperatures are stabilized, and weather control systems (e.g., cloud-seeding drones) manage rainfall for agriculture. Deserts are terraformed into lush ecosystems using synthetic biology.
3. Computing and AI:
   • Ubiquitous AI: Without patent barriers, computing advances exponentially post-1900. Transistor equivalents emerge in the 1920s, quantum computers by the 1950s, and sentient AI by the 1980s. By 2025, AI is fully integrated into society, running decentralized, open-source networks. Every citizen has a personal AI assistant (via BCIs or holographic interfaces) for education, work, and creativity.
   • Virtual Realities: Immersive neural-linked virtual worlds, developed ~1970s, replace most physical travel. Education and entertainment occur in customizable metaverses, with sensory fidelity indistinguishable from reality.
4. Transportation and Space:
   • Hyper-Travel: Maglev hyperloops (developed ~1940s) and anti-gravity propulsion (speculative, ~1980s) enable global travel in minutes. Personal flying pods are as common as cars today.
   • Space Colonization: Open-source rocketry (post-Sputnik equivalents in 1920s) leads to Moon/Mars colonies by the 1960s. By 2025, millions live in orbital habitats or terraformed Martian cities. Interstellar probes, launched in the 1990s, reach nearby stars, with early faster-than-light (FTL) prototypes (e.g., Alcubierre drive-like concepts) in testing.
5. Manufacturing and Materials:
   • Nanotech Fabrication: Nanotechnology, matured by the 1960s, enables molecular assemblers in every home. Goods (clothing, electronics, food) are “printed” on demand, eliminating supply chains. Graphene-based materials and programmable matter create indestructible, self-repairing infrastructure.
   • Automation: Universal automation (robots/AI) handles all repetitive labor by the 1970s. Humans focus on creative, exploratory, or leisurely pursuits.

Society and Culture

• Global Unity: Free knowledge sharing fosters global collaboration, reducing cultural and economic divides. By 2025, national borders are largely symbolic, with a decentralized global governance system managed by AI consensus networks. Conflicts are rare, as prosperity eliminates scarcity-driven wars.
• Education and Work: Education is lifelong, delivered via neural uploads or AI tutors, mastering complex fields in days. Work is optional, with universal basic income (UBI) funded by massive economic surplus. Most pursue art, science, or exploration.
• Culture: Creativity explodes in a post-scarcity world. Art, music, and literature are co-created with AI, blending human and machine aesthetics. Virtual reality festivals and interstellar cultural exchanges (via probes) are common.

Average Wealth of Citizens

• Economic Context: Without patents, monopolies dissolve, and innovation-driven productivity skyrockets. Global GDP in 2025 is ~$1,000-2,000 trillion (vs. ~$100 trillion actual), with per capita GDP ~$80,000-160,000 (vs. ~$12,500 actual) across 10-12 billion people.
• Wealth Distribution: Extreme equality due to open-source tech and UBI. The “average citizen” has:
  • Net Worth: ~$500,000-$1 million (2025 USD equivalent), including access to free housing, healthcare, and nanotech goods. Wealth is less about money and more about access to limitless resources.
  • Lifestyle: Lives in smart, self-sustaining homes (powered by fusion, built by nanobots). Owns personal AI, flying pods, and neural-linked devices. Food, clothing, and entertainment are essentially free.
  • Inequality: Gini coefficient ~0.1-0.2 (vs. ~0.4 actual), as open-source tech democratizes wealth. Even the “poorest” have access to advanced healthcare, education, and leisure.

Comparison to Actual World

• Tech Gap: Our 2025 has smartphones, early AI, and nascent fusion. The no-patent world has neural-linked AI, interstellar travel, and post-scarcity economics, resembling sci-fi like Star Trek or The Culture.
• Mortality: Actual world prevented ~25-30 billion deaths; no-patent world prevents 6-10 billion more, with near-zero preventable deaths by 2025.
• Wealth: Actual global GDP per capita ~$12,500; no-patent world ~$80,000-160,000, with no poverty.

Narrative Snapshot of 2025

Imagine a citizen, Aya, in a gleaming city of self-repairing skyscrapers on a terraformed Earth. Aya, a 40-year-old artist-explorer, wakes in a fusion-powered home that adjusts to her mood. Her nanobot implant monitors her health, ensuring she’ll live to 150. She designs a virtual sculpture with her AI partner, uploads it to a global metaverse, and attends a Martian festival via neural VR. For lunch, she prints a meal tailored to her genetics. Later, she boards a hyperloop to visit an orbital habitat, where she collaborates on an interstellar probe’s design. Her “wealth” is limitless access to knowledge, creativity, and exploration, in a world where scarcity is a distant memory.

Conclusion

In this no-patent sci-fi world, the absence of legal barriers since 1800 supercharges innovation, especially post-1900, creating a 2025 with fusion energy, nanotech, sentient AI, space colonies, and lifespans of 100-150 years. The average citizen enjoys a net worth of ~$500,000-$1 million, living in a post-scarcity society with universal access to advanced tech and resources. This utopian vision, driven by 6-10 billion fewer deaths and a 10-20x larger economy, showcases the profound impact of unhindered innovation, transforming Earth and beyond into a sci-fi paradise.

1. “It is obscene to undermine the glorious operation of the market in producing wealth and abundance by imposing artificial scarcity on human knowledge and learning (see “IP and Artificial Scarcity“). Learning, emulation, and information are good. It is good that information can be reproduced, retained, spread, and taught and learned and communicated so easily. Granted, we cannot say that it is bad that the world of physical resources is one of scarcity — this is the way reality is, after all — but it is certainly a challenge, and it makes life a struggle. It is suicidal and foolish to try to hamper one of our most important tools — learning, emulation, knowledge — by imposing scarcity on it. Intellectual property is theft. Intellectual property is statism. Intellectual property is death. Give us intellectual freedom instead!” Patents are death. Patents are slavery. (See Roderick Long: Owning Ideas Means Owning People; The Libertarian Case Against Intellectual Property Rights.) [↩]